Despite turbulent economic conditions, research also suggests a bright outlook for retailers this holiday season as 83% expect to achieve their Q4 sales objectives, building on last year's momentum.
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RakutenDespite turbulent economic conditions, research also suggests a bright outlook for retailers this holiday season as 83% expect to achieve their Q4 sales objectives, building on last year’s momentum.
Rakuten, the leading Cash Back shopping platform, today unveiled new research conducted by Harris Poll on behalf of Rakuten that highlights a sharply divided outlook for holiday shopping this year with just over one-fourth of shoppers (28%) planning to spend less, while a similar share (26%) expect to spend more. This divide is even more pronounced among households with children, which are gearing up to spend at nearly twice the rate of child-free households (38% vs. 19%), despite citing increased pressures on household finances from inflation and tariffs. This trend signals that shoppers with children feel more pressure to increase spending so they can still give their families an abundant holiday.
Financial Pressures Intensify, but Shoppers Remain Determined
While shoppers say they plan to spend where they want and how they want, financial strain remains widespread, with nearly half (46%) saying that rising monthly expenses (e.g. food, gas, utilities) will impact their holiday shopping plans. Additionally, only two-fifths (37%) feel confident they can afford non-essentials and holiday season expenses. Despite these constraints, shoppers remain determined to celebrate and deliver a festive season even though they might have smaller budgets.
“Consumers are navigating a volatile economy and increased financial stress this holiday season,” said Wendy Bergh, chief marketing officer at Rakuten Rewards. “While there is still a strong desire to celebrate and give gifts to loved ones, shoppers are incredibly cautious with where and how they spend. Retailers need to understand that shoppers are balancing their holiday budgets with every-day essentials and monthly payments. They need to be able to deliver a package of incentives that elevates an offer beyond just a ‘great deal,’ to something that shoppers simply cannot pass up.
Credit Card Debt on the Rise — Especially for Larger Households and Across Income Levels
This season, nearly a quarter (24%) of shoppers, regardless of their household income, expect to take on more credit card debt to afford their holiday shopping:
- 24% with an annual household income under $50,000
- 26% earning $50,000 – $75,000
- 24% earning $75,000 –$100,000
- 24% earning over $100,000
Although data shows all incomes plan to take on more debt, it’s particularly pronounced among households with children, who are more than twice as likely as child-free households (37% vs. 15%) to increase their personal credit card debt to cover holiday shopping.
Incentive Stacking Becomes Essential as Retailers Ramp Up Offers
As household budgets continue to feel the strain, shoppers are seeking more value for every dollar they spend. 75% say that the ability to stack multiple incentives, like free shipping, coupons, and cash back, is important to their purchase decisions, and nearly 1 out of 4 consumers (26%) say they won’t buy a gift unless they can stack deals at checkout.
Retailers are taking note by ramping up their shopping incentives:
- 50% will offer free shipping and returns
- 49% are prioritizing loyalty
- 44% are increasing investment in rewards and cash back offers
“Consumers want to shop with confidence,” said Bergh. “Retailers will need to offer stackable rewards and incentives to give shoppers the best, most-personalized deals possible. This means offering incentives like Cash Back with Rakuten on top of discounts, sales events, free shipping, and more. When a shopper earns Cash Back on top of a discount, they feel that confidence they need to make a purchase.”
Retailer Confidence Remains High, Backed by Last Year’s Results
Despite consumer caution, retailers remain optimistic: 83% expect to meet their Q4 sales goals, buoyed by the fact that 93% achieved their objectives in Q4 2024. While most (79%) acknowledge shoppers are more concerned about affording everyday essentials, only 3% believe consumers will fully trade down to value brands. Nearly a third (28%) expect shoppers to seek their favorite brands at discount retailers, indicating a shift toward value-driven shopping at mid-and off-price retailers.
“Retailers have every reason to be optimistic—last year proved that the right mix of value and engagement can drive impressive results, even in uncertain times,” concluded Bergh. “The brands that succeed this season will be those that listen closely to shoppers, personalize their incentives, deliver value that truly resonates and build lasting loyalty for the future.”
For more information about Rakuten, click here.
About Rakuten
Rakuten is the most rewarding way to shop, giving millions of members Cash Back when they buy from their favorite brands. As a leading shopping platform, Rakuten partners with thousands of top brands across apparel, beauty and wellness, grocery, travel, on-demand services, subscriptions, and dining, helping members save on everyday purchases. Since 1999, Rakuten members have earned more than $4.6 billion in Cash Back, making it the largest Cash Back platform of its kind. Learn more at Rakuten.com.
Methodology:
These surveys were conducted online within the United States by The Harris Poll on behalf of Rakuten. The retailer survey was conducted from August 25 – 30, 2025 among 107 retailer marketers in the US. The consumer survey was conducted from August 21-25, 2025, among 2,087 U.S. adults ages 18 and older. The sampling precision of Harris online polls is measured by using a Bayesian credible interval. For this study, the sample data is accurate to within + /-2.5 percentage points for the consumer survey and +/- 9.3 percentage points for the retailer survey using a 95% confidence level.
SOURCE Rakuten Rewards
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