According to a report from FTI Consulting, U.S. online retail sales are projected to grow 9.8% to $1.2 trillion in 2024. E-commerce will account for 22.7% of the total retail market, up from 21.6% last year. In Q1, online sales made up 57% of total U.S. retail sales, marking the highest rate since 2017, excluding the pandemic years.
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GLOFTI Consulting released its regular retail report. Access full report here.
According to a report from FTI Consulting, U.S. online retail sales are projected to grow 9.8% to $1.2 trillion in 2024. E-commerce will account for 22.7% of the total retail market, up from 21.6% last year. In Q1, online sales made up 57% of total U.S. retail sales, marking the highest rate since 2017, excluding the pandemic years.
E-commerce is shifting to a more stable growth phase, moving from pre-pandemic mid-teen growth rates to single-digit increases. FTI Consulting predicts e-commerce market share will plateau at around 35% in the next decade, with categories like toys, electronics, and books already reaching that threshold.
As e-commerce matures, store-based retailers continue losing ground. Businesses are responding by integrating omnichannel strategies, leveraging AI, and repurposing stores as fulfillment centers. According to Forrester, U.S. online sales could hit $1.6 trillion by 2028, representing 28% of total retail sales.
Key takeaways and trends to watch:
- U.S. e-commerce sales are projected to reach $1.2 trillion in 2024, marking a 9.8% growth from the previous year.
- E-commerce will account for 22.7% of the total U.S. retail market, up from 21.6% in 2023.
- E-commerce sales growth accounted for 57% of total retail sales growth in Q1 2024, the highest since 2017 (excluding the pandemic period).
- E-commerce growth has entered a maturing phase, with high to mid-single-digit growth expected in the coming years, replacing the pre-COVID mid-teen growth rate.
- Market share gains for e-commerce have resumed following a post-pandemic lull, with a 110 basis point increase in the last 12 months.
- E-commerce market share is expected to plateau at around 35% by the next decade, though categories like electronics, books, and toys have already reached this level.
- New e-commerce players like Temu, Shein, and TikTok Shop are disrupting the U.S. market with competitive prices and efficient supply chains, particularly in the apparel and home goods sectors.
- Retailers are adapting by integrating online and offline channels, repurposing stores as fulfillment centers, and leveraging AI for personalized shopping experiences.
- Amazon continues to dominate U.S. e-commerce, accounting for 42% of sales in 2023, with its third-party (3P) sales seeing significant growth.
- Store closures are expected to accelerate, with an estimated 45,000 U.S. retail stores closing by 2028 as e-commerce continues to gain market share.
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Image: FTI
Source: FTI:
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