BCD’s 2026 Outlook warns that a slowing global economy and rising risks will reshape business travel. GDP growth is set to reach only 2.6%, while six major risks—from climate disruption to cyberattacks—heighten pressure on programs. Air and hotel prices will rise modestly, with hotels up nearly 5%. Data-driven decisions, stronger risk management and smarter supplier strategy will be essential for travel programs in 2026. (Image: BCD)
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GLO27 November 2025 – The global economy may be losing momentum, but business travel is entering 2026 with significant shifts—and growing complexity. BCD Travel’s new Travel Market Report: 2026 Outlook reveals that although economic growth is expected to remain weak, corporate travel programs are evolving in ways that require sharper strategy, higher-quality data and greater organizational resilience.
Economic Fragility Will Shape Corporate Budgets
According to Oxford Economics, global GDP growth will slow to 2.6%—the weakest rate since 2009, apart from the pandemic years. Inflation is forecast to ease gradually, falling from 3.4% in 2025 but staying slightly above 3% into 2026. This delicate backdrop will influence spending plans across industries, even as business travel remains essential for revenue generation, client relationships and operational continuity.
Top Six Risks Travel Programs Must Prepare For in 2026
BCD identifies six major global risks that will heavily influence business travel next year:
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Extreme weather and climate-related disruption
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Geopolitical tensions and regional conflicts
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Shifts in border and immigration policies
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Cyberthreats and AI-driven misinformation attacks
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Disease outbreaks and public health concerns
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Capacity pressure in hotels and transport during mega-events
These risks underscore the importance of proactive planning. “Organizations face unprecedented challenges—but travel managers don’t have to navigate them alone,” said Jorge Mesa, BCD’s Senior Director of Travel Risk Management. He emphasized the value of real-time intelligence, destination monitoring and structured risk assessments.
BCD’s Traveler Security Program Assessment (TSPA), aligned with ISO 31030:2021, is designed to help companies assess vulnerabilities and strengthen duty-of-care compliance.
Air Travel: Mild Inflation, Major Structural Challenges
Global airfares are expected to rise by 1.1% on average in 2026. Modest inflation in the Americas—especially North America—will help stabilize prices, while other regions will experience sharper increases:
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Africa: +2.5%
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Asia: +2.0%
Beyond pricing, BCD’s consultancy arm Advito highlights five forces reshaping airline strategy:
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Declining value of corporate discounts
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Increasing cost-avoidance by suppliers
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Rising fuel surcharges
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Broad, aggressive adoption of NDC
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Persistent program leakage
“High-quality data is essential for anticipating airline pricing tactics and reducing missed savings, emissions and noncompliant bookings,” noted Olivier Benoit, Senior Vice President at Advito.
BCD’s DecisionSource® platform continues to provide real-time visibility into traveler behavior, policy performance and supplier trends.
Hotels: Pricing Power Returns Strongly
Global hotel rates are projected to rise 4.9% next year, driven by higher labor costs, solid leisure demand and fiscal changes. Expected increases by region include:
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Middle East: +8%
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Latin America: +6.4%
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Africa, Asia, Europe: +4–6%
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North America & Southwest Pacific: +2.2–2.6%
“Nearly 5% global growth means companies must rethink how they manage hotel spend,” said Miriam Moscovici, BCD’s Vice President of Product Planning & Intelligence. She stressed the role of Stay by BCD Travel, which uses global sourcing strength, advanced analytics and Hotel Price Assurance to maintain savings.
Ground Transport: Continued Price Pressure
Rental car inflation is expected to reach 2–4%, fueled by high repair expenses, vehicle acquisition challenges and added surcharges. As prices climb, ride-hailing and taxi options are likely to see increased adoption due to flexibility and convenience.
Sustainability: Accountability Is Now Essential
Sustainability in managed travel is shifting from optional to operational. GBTA benchmarks show the industry’s maturity at only 1.4 out of 5, with limited adoption of key practices:
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9% of organizations apply carbon fees
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15% invest in sustainable aviation fuel (SAF)
BCD’s Sustainability Solution aims to simplify carbon reporting, traveler engagement and decarbonization planning without compromising business continuity.
The Bottom Line: 2026 Demands Smarter Decisions
The coming year will not reward passive management. With economic uncertainty, rising travel risks and shifting supplier strategies, high-performing travel programs will rely on:
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Strong risk frameworks
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Real-time insights
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Quality data and analytics
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Forward-looking supplier strategies
For deeper regional insights, pricing forecasts and risk mitigation recommendations, BCD’s full Travel Market Report: 2026 Outlook is available for download.
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