LOYALTY RESEARCH, THEORY & SURVEYS

National Restaurant Association Forecasts $1.5 Trillion in Revenue for 2025

Loyalty programs are also providing value for both the operator and the consumer. Among operators with such programs, 70 percent say they helped boost customer traffic. For consumers, being a member of a loyalty program is a growing factor when choosing a restaurant.

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The 2025 State of the Restaurant Industry report highlights resilient consumer demand, experience-driven dining, and innovation as key growth drivers

Driven by a positive economic environment and resilient consumer demand, the restaurant industry is expected to reach $1.5 trillion in sales and add more than 200,000 net new jobs in 2025, bringing total restaurant and foodservice employment to 15.9 million by year-end. This is according to the National Restaurant Association 2025 State of the Restaurant Industry report.

Key findings from this year’s report include:

• Restaurant operators are cautiously optimistic about business conditions, but competition will remain strong. More than 8 in 10 operators expect their 2025 sales to be either higher or about the same as 2024. At the same time, restaurant operators expect competitive pressures to intensify in 2025.
• The restaurant industry continues to provide employment opportunities. In 2025, the industry is expected to add approximately 200,000 new jobs, bringing the total workforce to 15.9 million employees. The industry will remain the nation’s second-largest private-sector employer.
• Consumers have pent-up demand for restaurant meals. Consumers report they would use restaurants more frequently if they had the money, and this sentiment cuts across all segments: on-premises dining at tableservice restaurants (81 percent) to visiting quickservice restaurants, snack places, delis or coffee shops (76 percent) to having food delivered at home (82 percent). 
• Restaurants aim to attract more in-person diners. The majority of operators say increasing traffic on-site and getting diners back in their seats will be more important to their restaurant’s success in 2025. This is especially important to 90 percent of fine dining operators and 87 percent of casual dining operators.
• Despite the positive outlook, many operators say, “new year, similar concerns.” In 2025, restaurants will continue to grapple with many of the same challenges they faced in 2024. Rising labor and food costs, along with the ongoing struggle to recruit and retain employees, remain among the top concerns for both fullservice and limited-service operators.

“The fundamentals of the restaurant industry are strong, and operators are optimistic about the year ahead,” said Michelle Korsmo, President & CEO of the National Restaurant Association. “Industry sales are expected grow more than four percent this year, and employment should reach nearly 16 million jobs. That growth will come from restaurant operators finding the balance of value and experience for consumers, and innovating breakthrough efficiency in their operations.”

Expanding the definition of value
In 2025, the meaning of “value” to the dining consumer will extend beyond price to include a mix of experience, hospitality and affordability. Research highlights that welcoming environments and socialization are key motivators for consumers. To address this demand, restaurant operators must strike a balance between offering value-based pricing while ensuring cleanliness alongside a friendly, approachable staff.

The emphasis on experience also extends beyond customer service to the unique ways restaurants engage diners. Seventy percent of consumers expressed interest in tasting events, 52 percent in private dinner events with a chef, and 50 percent in cooking classes at a restaurant. These preferences illustrate the growing importance of innovative, hospitality-driven dining, where restaurants are not just places to eat, but spaces for entertainment, education, and community-building.

Loyalty programs are also providing value for both the operator and the consumer. Among operators with such programs, 70 percent say they helped boost customer traffic. For consumers, being a member of a loyalty program is a growing factor when choosing a restaurant. Sixty-one percent of delivery customers, 54 percent of quickservice patrons, and 41 percent of tableservice diners indicate that being part of a rewards program influences their dining choices.

Consumers and operators crave more in-person dining; takeout and delivery also top of mind
In 2025, the restaurant industry is navigating a dual focus as both on-premises and off-premises dining continue to meet distinct consumer needs. Consumers are eager to dine out more often, which aligns with operators’ goals, as 90 percent of fine dining operators and 87 percent of casual dining operators think an increase in on-premises business will be important to their success this year.

Off-premises dining, however, remains integral, especially for younger demographics. Delivery is driven by convenience, technology and promotions, with 82 percent of consumers, including 89 percent of millennials, expressing a strong interest in ordering delivery more often if their finances allow. At the same time, takeout is favored for its speed and flexibility, with over half of consumers, including 67 percent of Gen Z and 64 percent of millennials, considering it essential. Half of all restaurant operators report that off-premises sales now account for a larger proportion of their revenue compared with 2019.

“Nine out of 10 people enjoy going to restaurants, and restaurant operators understand what it takes to keep that experience positive,” said Korsmo. “Operators are adapting to meet today’s consumers’ wants and needs with an eye to economic pressures, regulatory changes and rising food and labor costs.”

Click here to download the 2025 State of the Restaurant Industry report, supported by Sage.

About the National Restaurant Association 
Founded in 1919, the National Restaurant Association is the leading business association for the restaurant industry, which comprises more than 1 million restaurant and foodservice outlets and a workforce of more than 15.9 million employees. Together with 52 State Associations, we are a network of professional organizations dedicated to serving every restaurant through advocacy, education, and food safety. We sponsor the industry’s largest trade show (National Restaurant Association Show); leading food safety training and certification program (ServSafe); unique career-building high school program (the NRAEF’s ProStart). For more information, visit Restaurant.org) and find WeRRestaurants on Twitter, Facebook and YouTube. 

SOURCE National Restaurant Association

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